What follows is the long-form version of a thread we published on Twitter last week. We've added the backtest data, the trade screenshots, and the things we couldn't say in 280 characters.
The setup
Most retail traders entering this market for the first time fixate on the wrong thing — the entry. Entry is roughly 10% of expected return. The other 90% lives in position sizing, stop discipline, and the ability to take a profit at +1R without flinching.
What the data actually says
Across 124 students who attempted an FTMO 100k challenge in the last 12 months, 38 passed. The 38 who passed shared three traits, in descending order of importance:
- They placed fewer than 4 trades per day on average
- They risked between 0.5% and 1.2% per trade
- They kept a written journal with at least one screenshot per entry
What it doesn't say
It doesn't say anything about strategy. Pin-bar reversal, SMC, EMA cross — the passing group used all of them. What separated the winners was the discipline applied to the strategy, not the strategy itself.
What to do next
If you're in the middle of a prop-firm challenge: count your trades today. If it's already four, stop. Open the journal. Write the screenshots up. Come back tomorrow.